Long Range 2012 Hurricane Season Outlook

This site is NOT a source of official forecasts and is not to be used as such. For official information,
please refer to NHC and NWS products.

Hurricane Epsilon ... the 27th tropical cyclone of 2005

In December 2011, the Tropical Meteorology Project at Colorado State University (CSU) released its initial outlook for the 2012 Atlantic basin hurricane season.

The report marks the 29th year for the CSU hurricane forecasting team, led by Philip Klotzbach and William Gray, but is the first time in its early December forecast that the team is relying on probabilities of key factors influencing the hurricane season, rather than issuing a numerical forecast for the number of storms.

Extended-range forecasts made in December have not proved skillful in real-time over the last 20 years. Thus, the team is focusing on analyzing factors that influence the hurricane season rather than actually predicting the number of hurricanes.

With its April forecast, the CSU team will return to identifying an anticipated number of named storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes (Saffir/Simpson category 3-4-5). Seasonal updates of the 2012 Atlantic basin hurricane activity forecast are scheduled for April 4, June 1 and August 3.